- - Groundhog Day 2026 results aside, here's what real forecasters predict

Doyle Rice, USA TODAY February 2, 2026 at 7:36 AM

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Groundhog Day 2026 is here, and the world's eyes turned to Punxsutawney Phil's prognostication (he did see his shadow on Monday, Feb. 2, which predicts there will be six more weeks of winter).

But what do real weather forecasters say?

Professional forecasters say that a frigid February is likely for the eastern half of the nation, while the West enjoys mild to warm weather overall for the immediate future. Thus, if you're looking for an early spring, head West!

Americans should remember that while Groundhog Day is just some mid-winter fun and climate records say that winter probably isn't over, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Weatherwise, the three coldest months of the year are December, January and February ("meteorological winter"), so winter typically still has a ways to go when the groundhog comes out on Feb. 2.

AJ Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil during the Groundhog Day Festivities, at Gobblers Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, U.S., February 2, 2023. REUTERS/Alan FreedPolar vortex to plague eastern, central US

Folks hoping for spring will not be pleased to hear this: "The polar vortex could unleash another surge of bitterly cold air across the central and eastern United States around the middle of February," according to an online forecast from AccuWeather long-range expert Paul Pastelok. He said this will be accompanied by chances for snow.

DTN meteorologist John Baranick agrees, noting that "the weather pattern is setting up to bring back the arctic air first to the Eastern U.S. next weekend, in the roughly Feb. 6-9 time frame, and then eventually the central U.S. the following week."

"We will be watching the potential for a big storm to do that as well, so winter isn't over just yet," he said in an online forecast.

Where is an early spring likely?

"It depends on the region!" said meteorologist Johnna Infanti from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in an e-mail to USA TODAY. Overall, forecasts appear to favor ongoing cold in the East and warmth in the West.

"For example, outlooks into early to mid-February favor below-normal temperatures over much of the East. And, our 8-14 Day hazards outlook is looking quite chilly for parts of the Northeast for a few days in February."

In addition, a new map released Jan. 30 (below) shows that the below-normal temperatures are expected to continue over the eastern U.S. in the final two weeks of February.

However, the West will see high probabilities of above-normal temperatures through much of February, with the warmth concentrated in the Southwest by the end of the month.

The last two weeks of February shows a continuation of the cold air in the eastern U.S. and warm temperatures in the western U.S.What about rain and snow? And is La Niña still impacting things?

Snow could be plentiful across the nation's northern tier in February: "Above-normal precipitation is in the forecast for the northern Rockies, northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and the interior Northeast, which is contrasted with below-normal precipitation over the southern tier," Infanti said.

More: La Niña persists for now, but El Niño lurks in the distance

She said the La Niña climate pattern continues to influence the USA's weather: "This is a fairly typical La Niña pattern for both temperature and precipitation, as we expect some seasonal impacts of the La Niña to last into the upcoming month and season," she said.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Groundhog Day 2026 results aside; see what weather forecasters predict

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