Cactus (WHD) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript
Cactus (WHD) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript
Motley Fool Transcribing, The Motley FoolMon, June 1, 2026 at 8:56 PM UTC
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Thursday, May 7, 2026 at 10 a.m. ET
CALL PARTICIPANTS -
Chief Executive Officer — Scott Bender
Chief Financial Officer — Jay Nutt
President — Joel Bender
EVP, Chief Legal & Administrative Officer — Alan Boyd
TAKEAWAYS -
Total Revenue -- $388 million, up significantly on first-quarter inclusion of Cactus International, with Pressure Control revenue at $300 million, and Spoolable Technologies at $90 million.
Adjusted EBITDA -- $100 million, an increase of $14.6 million sequentially from Q4, driven by the acquisition; adjusted EBITDA margin declined from 32.7% to 25.8%.
GAAP Net Income -- $40 million, down from $48 million in Q4, reflecting purchase price accounting impacts from the acquisition.
Adjusted Net Income and EPS -- $56 million and $0.70 per share, compared to $52 million and $0.65 per share in Q4.
Dividends -- Quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share declared and paid, resulting in $12 million cash outflow; same amount approved for June.
Cash Balance -- $292 million at quarter end, which includes $98 million held for pending Cactus International legal restructuring with Baker Hughes.
Backlog -- $537 million, down from year-end as multiyear Middle East contract negotiations continued, and late-quarter Iran conflict hampered order flow.
Pressure Control Segment Operating Income -- Decreased $10 million, or 20.7% sequentially, with margins falling approximately 14%; reduction attributed to purchase price accounting and lower manufacturing absorption.
Pressure Control Segment Adjusted EBITDA -- $12.7 million, higher sequentially, but with margins down 930 basis points due to Cactus International inclusion.
Spoolable Technologies Segment Performance -- Revenue up 6.8% sequentially; operating income rose $2.6 million, or 12.6%, with margin up 130 basis points on better leverage and reduced stock-based compensation, despite increased input costs.
Corporate & Other Expenses -- $12.7 million in Q1, including $5.8 million of transaction and integration costs; adjusted corporate EBITDA was $4.7 million of expense.
Acquisition Synergy Target Increased -- Cactus International synergy target raised by 50% from $10 million to $15 million annualized, with actions to lock in savings already completed.
Tariff Exposure -- U.S. imports from China face a 75% total tariff (25% Section 301, and 50% Section 232); Vietnam exports to U.S. set to incur a 50% tariff with tentative API approval now obtained on that route.
Middle East Operating Disruption -- Conflict in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused delayed shipments and elevated logistics expenses, particularly affecting Cactus International.
Pressure Control Outlook -- Q2 revenue expected to be flat with Q1; adjusted EBITDA margin predicted between 22% and 24%, with continued margin pressure from elevated logistics costs and lower manufacturing absorption.
Spoolable Technologies Outlook -- Q2 segment revenue expected to grow mid-single digits percentage-wise, with adjusted EBITDA margin of 36% to 38%, reflecting improved leverage.
Backlog Commentary -- Potential further decrease in backlog in Q2 as Middle East contract renegotiations and conflict continue to dampen international order activity.
Working Capital and Free Cash Flow -- High unbilled accounts receivable remains; management plans initiatives to accelerate customer billing and cash conversion over coming quarters.
CapEx Guidance -- Full-year 2026 expected net capital expenditures of $40 million to $50 million, with Q1 CapEx at approximately $9 million.
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RISKS -
Backlog in Cactus International decreased as "multiyear contract negotiations continued with one large Middle East customer, resulting in lower-than-normal order activity." Management expects backlog could "continue to decrease in the second quarter, considering the conflict in the Middle East and the impact of contract renegotiation timing."
Operating income decreased $10 million, or 20.7% sequentially, with operating margins decreasing approximately 14%, primarily due to the inclusion of Cactus International operating results.
Tariff exposure on imports remains; "A 75% total tariff is still paid on the import of most goods from China," with only limited relief expected from shifting to Vietnam until the supply chain is fully reoriented.
Management noted that increased input costs for polyethylene in the Spoolable Technologies segment may continue due to Middle East conflict-related commodity price volatility.
Cactus (NYSE:WHD) posted sequential revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, driven by the integration of Cactus International, despite margin contraction attributable to purchase price accounting and regional operational disruptions. The company raised its synergy target for the Cactus International acquisition by 50% to $15 million annualized, with completed restructuring actions supporting a more efficient organizational model. International backlog declined, primarily on delayed Middle East contract renewals and conflict-related disruptions, while management indicated risk of further backlog reductions in the near term as these issues persist. The Vietnam facility gained tentative API approval, providing an avenue to shift U.S.-bound shipments to a lower 50% tariff rate, but full financial benefit depends on additional supply chain realignment over the coming quarters. Working capital optimization, particularly reducing unbilled accounts receivable, remains a management focus to enhance free cash flow generation.
Management expects supply chain–related synergies from the Cactus International acquisition to begin realizing meaningful savings after current backlog inventory is fulfilled—likely not before the second half of 2027.
CEO Bender said, "Okay. Well, let me tell you that although customers are eager, I mean, I think you've read to reduce their DUCs right now and take advantage, we haven't really seen any meaningful or significant evidence of that, although it's expected. But what we have seen is far more optimism on the part of our larger customers in addition to our privates. So if you recall last quarter, I was probably the outlier when I forecasted a U.S. onshore count of 490. And of course, the world has changed since then. So we're now thinking we're going to be in the 5.25% range, 525. And I personally believe that we'll get our -- more than our share of that. I think that from what we see in terms of activity increases, many of them are within our customer base. So I feel much better about it. That's the short answer. Stephen."
The majority of total backlog is designated for the international Pressure Control business, with U.S. operations remaining primarily short-cycle and not materially contributing to reported backlog.
Management reiterated that the Middle East conflict has led to improved commodity prices for customers, but also to a recent material increase in the price of polyethylene, one of the company's primary input costs.
Alternative shipping methods in the Middle East are extending delivery timelines by approximately "a good 30 days" or more, with normalization dependent on the reopening and clearance of the Strait of Hormuz, which management believes will take "months and months."
Dividend payments continue on schedule, with a $0.14 per share payout set for June, reflecting the Board’s ongoing commitment to capital returns.
There is uncertainty around tariff refunds; Scott Bender stated, "There is no certainty as to the amount or timing of the tariff refunds."
INDUSTRY GLOSSARY -
Section 301/232/122 Tariffs: Distinct categories of U.S. import tariffs primarily targeting steel, aluminum, and certain other goods, referenced as critical cost factors for Cactus equipment imports.
API Approval: Third-party technical certification from the American Petroleum Institute, permitting use of specific equipment in regulated markets, notably facilitating U.S. imports from Vietnam at lower tariff rates.
Full Conference Call Transcript
Scott Bender: Thanks, Alan. Good morning to everyone. I'm very proud of our team's achievements in the first quarter and the current momentum in the business, which reflects our focus on delivering premium, highly engineered products and services to our customers. Pressure Controls revenues remained resilient despite the impacts of the conflict in the Middle East and our Spoolable Technologies business outperformed in what is usually a seasonally slow quarter on continued international shipment strength. I'd like to extend a thanks to our team, particularly those in the Mid East for sustaining a high level of performance during this challenging period.
Some first quarter total company financial highlights include revenue of $388 million, adjusted EBITDA of $100 million, adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.8%. We paid a quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share, and we closed the quarter with a cash balance of $292 million. I'll now turn the call over to Jay Nutt, our CFO, who will review our financial results. Following his remarks, I'll provide some thoughts on our outlook for the near term before opening the lines for Q&A. Jay?
Jay Nutt: Thank you, Scott. As Scott mentioned, total Q1 revenues were $388 million and total adjusted EBITDA was $100 million, both sequentially much higher than the fourth quarter, largely due to the contribution of Cactus International for our first quarter of ownership. For our Pressure Control segment, revenues of $300 million were up nearly 70% from the fourth quarter due to the acquisition. Revenues and operating income in the Middle East were modestly impacted by the outbreak of the conflict in Iran, but impacts of delayed shipments were offset by strength in the U.S. market. Operating income decreased $10 million or 20.7% sequentially with operating margins decreasing approximately 14%.
Operating income improved sequentially due to the inclusion of Cactus International, but of course, as reported, it was reduced by approximately $19 million due to purchase price accounting adjustments. These noncash charges are added back to our adjusted operating results. Accordingly, adjusted segment EBITDA was $12.7 million, higher sequentially with margins decreasing by 930 basis points. The margin decrease was primarily due to the inclusion of Cactus International operating results. For our Schoolable Technologies segment, revenues of $90 million were up 6.8% sequentially, reflecting higher customer activity supported by increased sales across domestic and international markets.
Operating income increased $2.6 million or 12.6% sequentially, with operating margins increasing 130 basis points due to improved operating leverage and lower stock-based compensation expense. Adjusted segment EBITDA increased $1.8 million or 5.9% sequentially, while margins decreased by 30 basis points as the improved operating leverage was offset by increased input costs. Corporate and other expenses increased by $2.9 million to $12.7 million in Q1, including $5.8 million of transaction and integration costs. Adjusted corporate EBITDA moved favorably to $4.7 million of expense. On a total company basis, first quarter adjusted EBITDA was $100 million, up $14.6 million from Q4. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the first quarter was 25.8% compared to 32.7% in the fourth quarter.
Adjustments to total company EBITDA during the first quarter included noncash charges of $7 million in stock-based compensation, $10.4 million of inventory step-up amortization due to purchase price accounting, $5.8 million for transaction-related professional fees and $900,000 of severance primarily incurred in initial actions to rightsize the Cactus International organization. Total company remaining performance obligations or backlog ended the quarter at $537 million. Backlog reflects remaining performance obligations for our global Pressure Control and Spoolable Technologies businesses, but a significant majority of these obligations are associated with our international Pressure Control business.
As a reminder, our Pressure Control and Spoolable Technologies operations are predominantly short-cycle businesses where backlog levels at any time may not be indicative of future revenues beyond the near term. Pressure control operations in the U.S. do not contribute meaningfully to our backlog as the business is driven by call-out orders. Backlog in the Cactus International business decreased from year-end as multiyear contract negotiations continued with one large Middle East customer, resulting in lower-than-normal order activity. And orders were partially impacted late in the quarter due to the outbreak of the conflict in Iran. Backlog could continue to decrease in the second quarter, considering the conflict in the Middle East and the impact of contract renegotiation timing.
Depreciation and amortization expense for the quarter was $36.8 million, which includes $12.5 million of amortization expense related to intangible assets and $10.5 million of amortization of the step-up of inventory values resulting from the Cactus International and FlexSteel acquisitions. During the first quarter, the public or Class A ownership of the company averaged 86% and ended the period at 87%. GAAP net income was $40 million in the first quarter versus $48 million during the fourth quarter. The decrease was largely driven by purchase price accounting.
Book tax expense during the first quarter was $10 million, resulting in an effective tax rate of 19% -- adjusted net income and earnings per share were $56 million and $0.70 per share, respectively, during the first quarter compared to $52 million and $0.65 per share in the fourth quarter. Adjusted net income for the first quarter was net of a 22% tax rate applied to our adjusted pretax income and now also includes deductions for noncontrolling interest related to Baker Hughes ownership in the Cactus International joint venture, combined with a noncontrolling partners' ownership in our business in Saudi Arabia.
During the quarter, we paid a quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share, resulting in a cash outflow of approximately $12 million, including related distributions to members. We ended the quarter with a cash balance of $292 million. This amount includes $98 million of cash held to finalize Cactus International legal entity restructuring transactions with Baker Hughes in certain jurisdictions. We expect those restructurings to be completed by Baker Hughes in the coming months. The offset to this cash is currently reflected in our accounts payable balances. These balances and other legal restructuring-related items impacted our cash from operations in the quarter. Cash decreased from year-end due to the acquisition outflow.
Net CapEx was approximately $9 million during the first quarter of 2026. In a moment, Scott will give you our second quarter operational outlook. Some additional financial considerations when looking ahead to the second quarter include an effective tax rate of 19% and an estimated tax rate for adjusted EPS of approximately 22% Total depreciation and amortization expense during the second quarter is expected to be approximately $37 million. $28 million of this expense is associated with our Pressure Control segment, including approximately $10 million of expected amortization of the step-up of inventory and $8 million of intangible amortization because of purchase price accounting. And finally, $9 million of this expense is within Spoolable Technologies.
Our full year 2026 CapEx outlook remains in the range of $40 million to $50 million. Finally, the Board has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share, which will be paid in June. That covers the financial review, and I'll turn the call back over to Scott.
Scott Bender: Thanks, Jay. I'll now touch on our expectations for the second quarter, our reporting segment, starting with our Pressure Control business. During the second quarter, we expect total Pressure Control revenue to be approximately flat from the first quarter, reflecting increased customer optimism in the domestic market, offset by a full quarter impact of the conflict in Iran on our Cactus International JV's results. We assume that the status quo will continue throughout the full second quarter, even considering an opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is impacting our customer activity and presenting numerous logistic challenges to our Middle East manufacturing operations.
I'm extremely thankful that our personnel in the region have remained safe, and we'll continue to prioritize their safety as the situation changes. Our team has done an incredible job mitigating the impacts of logistics challenges and minimizing the impact on revenues so far in the second quarter by utilizing alternative shipping methods whenever possible, while also personally navigating an extremely trying time for them and their families. We remain hopeful for an expeditious and nonkinetic resolution to the conflict soon. Adjusted EBITDA margins in our Pressure Control segment are expected to be in the 22% to 24% range in the second quarter.
This guidance excludes approximately $5 million of stock-based comp expense within the segment and the amortization of the write-up of Cactus International inventory due to purchase price accounting. We expect this will be the last quarter for this inventory amortization expense. Margins are expected to decrease slightly as resilience in the U.S. market and increased imports of lower-cost goods from Vietnam are more than offset by elevated logistics expenses and lower manufacturing absorption in our Cactus International business due to the conflict. I'm also pleased to announce we're increasing the expected synergies targets for our Cactus International acquisition by 50% from an annualized amount of $10 million to $15 million.
The increase follows our work to further flatten and rightsize the organization to match our operating model. The actions necessary to lock in these savings have already been completed, which are expected to support higher profitability leading into next year. Additionally, we are increasingly confident in supply chain-related synergies. However, we have much work to do to crystallize the amount and timing of these savings. In any event, this is a project-driven business, most -- in any rate as this is a project-driven business, most material is ordered was ordered when the orders received for delivery approximately 9 to 15 months from placement.
As a result, we do not expect to see meaningful supply chain-related savings before the second half of '27. More to come as we continue to work on this topic. I'd also like to provide a brief update on the tariff situation in the U.S. as it applies to our imports, which remain highly fluid. We still pay a 75% total tariff on the import of most of our goods from China, which consists of 25% Section 301 and 50% Section 232. There were no meaningful changes to the basis of calculations of our rates as a result of the recent U.S.
Supreme Court rulings regarding the IEEPA tariffs or changes to the more impactful Section 32 tariffs announced in early April. We are also now paying a 10% tariff implemented under Section 122, which impacts certain goods we import but not those captured under Section 232. While we've not gained much from tariff relief on China-sourced product, I'm pleased to share that our Vietnam facility is now tentatively API approved, and we're proceeding to increase shipments from this facility, which will attract a lower 50% import tariff under Section 232 only. Finally, the recent Supreme Court ruling provided that certain tariff payers may claim refunds for IEEPA and other tariffs previously remitted that were ruled unconstitutional.
We filed for a refund of such payments, but the amount is relatively small compared to the overall tariff burden that we incurred as a result of Section 232 and Section 301, both of which remain in place. There is no certainty as to the amount or timing of the tariff refunds. Shifting to our Spoolable Technologies segment. I'm extremely pleased with the performance in the quarter. We achieved a record quarter of non-U.S. revenues buoyed by strength in the Middle East and Latin America. International order momentum is increasing due to our multiyear effort to further develop our global footprint and customer relationships.
Domestic activity in the first quarter was also higher than expected in what is typically a seasonally slow quarter. Continued growth with midstream customers who demand our larger diameter high-specification products was an additional source of domestic strength. This momentum is continuing into the second quarter as we expect revenues to increase mid-single digits percentage-wise, primarily driven by an increase in North American activity. Recent commodity price strength has increased customer optimism and adoption. We're excited about the trajectory of the segment where bookings have improved sequentially in every month this year.
Internationally, we've seen a step change in inbound interest since quarter end, particularly from Latin America, where we were recently awarded several incremental orders totaling approximately $30 million for delivery this year. Further, we shipped our first sour service equipment order to the Mid East in April, as previously shared. We expect Spoolable Technologies adjusted EBITDA margins to be approximately 36% to 38% in the second quarter, which excludes $1 billion of stock-based comp expense and is increasingly -- is increasing modestly on improved operating leverage.
With regards to our Spoolable Technology supply chain, the Middle East conflict has led to improved commodity prices for our customers, but also to a recent material increase in the price of polyethylene, one of our primary input costs. I'm confident in our team's ability to proactively address these inflationary pressures through cost mitigation and recovery efforts. Adjusted corporate EBITDA is expected to be a charge of approximately $5 million in the second quarter, which excludes $2 million of stock-based comp. In conclusion, the outlook of the oil and gas market has fundamentally changed in the last few months from one of supply abundance and customer unease to supply concerns and guarded optimism.
We are extremely well positioned to capitalize on this momentum shift with our premium global customers once the conflict abates. Although not seen in domestic activity levels as of yet, our customers have increased the pace of their activity and urgency with which they are bringing production online into a highly supportive commodity prices. As our SafeDrill and FlexSteel products are both specifically engineered to allow our customers to drill wells and bring production online faster, we are receiving increasing inquiries for new activity.
Although we remain in the early stages of the transformation necessary for our Cactus International business to improve the margins and returns consistent with our long-term expectations, we're very pleased to have a broader geographic footprint and participate fully in the expected upcoming investments required to reestablish supply for the disruption in the Middle East. So with that, I'd like to turn it back over to the operator, and we can begin Q&A. Operator?
Operator:[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan Securities.
Arun Jayaram: Team, I wanted to get your thoughts. You've had your hands around the Cactus International assets for 4 months or so. Obviously, a very volatile time since late February. But I was wondering if you could frame some of the self-help opportunities you see with that business as we think about '27 and beyond.
Scott Bender: Are you really referring to what we see in terms of synergy opportunities?
Arun Jayaram: Exactly, exactly. As you think about things such as optimizing the supply chain and things like that.
Scott Bender: Well, as we discussed, that the $15 million in synergies relates primarily to making the organization far more efficient. So I think there was some bloat in the way it was organized, and we're trying to reduce that to be more like Cactus. Potentially, the larger prize here is going to be supply chain. And our early indications are that there's quite a bit of room there for improvement. So I would really tell you that it's primarily based upon improving the processes in the business to require fewer headcount and then the supply chain aspect of the business. Our supply chain is considerably lower cost.
Arun Jayaram: Got it. Got it. And would -- how much time do you think it will take to kind of get the Cactus cost optimal supply chain kind of embedded in those in that business?
Scott Bender: It won't take that long. However, it will take a while to get rid of the inventory that has already been ordered in fulfillment of the current backlog. So our best estimate will be sometime by the end of the second quarter, leading into the third quarter as we begin to replenish this inventory with lower-cost product.
Arun Jayaram: Got it. Got it. And maybe one for Jay because I did get some questions this morning -- you highlighted and you mentioned this in your script, the $98 million of cash held for the legal restructuring transactions with Baker. Can you provide a little bit more color? I know that Cactus spent around $355 million for the 65% stake in the JV, and you put $70 million of cash -- operating cash in the JV as part of your piece. How does this $98 million compare to that? And maybe just some color around that.
Jay Nutt: Yes, Arun, this $98 million is for a couple of legal entities where the restructuring has not been completed, and that's Baker Hughes' responsibility to complete that. So these will be -- this will be cash that's necessary to execute those transactions and restructurings. And it's really -- we're not calling it restricted cash because it's sitting in our bank accounts, but that cash is designated to complete those legal entity restructurings, and we believe it's going to take several more months to complete that.
Arun Jayaram: Okay. But that is being paid for kind of from the Baker standpoint?
Jay Nutt: Yes. The cash is sitting with us. And as I point out, we really show that as a payable on our balance sheet back to Baker because that cash is designated for those restructuring activities.
Operator: Our next question comes from Stephen Gengaro from Stifel.
Stephen Gengaro: That's only slightly easier than Arun's last name, I think. So I think 2 things for me. The first, when you think about the U.S. land market and kind of the potential for improvement, and I'm thinking at least we're hearing completions probably lead and then maybe drilling activity picks up a bit. Are you seeing -- and what you've seen in your activity, is that playing out in that manner? And how do you think drilling activity evolves as we go through the year based on what you see right now?
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Scott Bender: Okay. Well, let me tell you that although customers are eager, I mean, I think you've read to reduce their DUCs right now and take advantage, we haven't really seen any meaningful or significant evidence of that, although it's expected. But what we have seen is far more optimism on the part of our larger customers in addition to our privates. So if you recall last quarter, I was probably the outlier when I forecasted a U.S. onshore count of 490. And of course, the world has changed since then. So we're now thinking we're going to be in the 5.25% range, 525. And I personally believe that we'll get our -- more than our share of that.
I think that from what we see in terms of activity increases, many of them are within our customer base. So I feel much better about it. That's the short answer. Stephen.
Stephen Gengaro: Great. Okay. And the other question I had, it pertains to the selling the SafeDrill product internationally and how the JV with Baker will potentially help the sales of your Safe drill product to some of the nonconventional markets, either in the Middle East or in other areas. Can you just talk a little bit about that and how you see that evolving?
Scott Bender: Yes. So I think that -- let me tell you that our first shipment of Safe Thrill will be to a historic Cactus customer and will be -- that shipment and the resulting contribution margin will be the property of your old Cactus and not the JV. But in terms of the JV's ability to leverage our unconventional, they're very active in areas that you know are going to be active in unconventional such as Saudi, the rest of Abu Dhabi that's managed by ADNOC, Kuwait, Algeria. Those areas are where we expect to see the greatest benefit from the JV. They're there, they're approved, and we have the products.
Operator: Our next question comes from Derek Podhaizer from Piper Sandler.
Derek Podhaizer: Maybe just sticking on Cactus International. I appreciate all the comments around optimizing the supply chain, driving the efficiencies, you just up the target there. But maybe some comments or your thoughts around what an activity recovery could look like in the Middle East in the post-war environment. I'm assuming that there's been a bit of a destocking in Saudi and UAE, but when we think about restocking going back into the region, how should that impact Cactus International? And what do you see some upside from that?
Scott Bender: Yes. I would say because of the deliveries, the extended deliveries and the destocking, I'm thinking -- we're all thinking second quarter, third quarter of '27. But I think we're going to see a pretty good increase in what has historically been demand from that area. And I'm a little concerned about Qatar, frankly, because having lost their -- most of their ability to export and Qatar has been a really good market for us. I'm not sure how much more gas -- and I believe this is only my opinion, how much more gas Qatar is interested in producing right now with limited avenues for export.
But for the rest of the Mid East, particularly, I'm seeing that we're going to see a lot...
Derek Podhaizer: Got it. Okay. That's great. So middle of next year, along with all the efficiencies on the cost side of things, so setting up for some good upside, it appears. I guess maybe switching over to the free cash flow. Obviously, a pretty big quarter. Obviously, a lot of impact from working capital where that ties back to the $98 million payable with Baker. But I think when you guys closed the deal on SPC Cactus International, there was a pretty high working capital balance, particularly around AR, and I think you can benefit from harvesting that cash.
So maybe just some thoughts around that and when we can really see that showing up in force as we work through this year and into next year. Just some color around the free cash flow generation.
Jay Nutt: Derek, you're correct. There was a high level of unbilled AR at the end of year-end. We made some progress in Q1, but we continue to have a an elevated level of unbilled AR. So we're going to work on some processes about improving and accelerating the timing of being able to get that bill to our customers so that we can start increasing the velocity of cash flow. It's going to take a couple of quarters to make that happen because we have to work closely with our customers to get them to take invoicing a little more rapidly than what they're used to right now.
Operator: Our next question comes from Keith Ekman from Pickering Energy Partners.
Unknown Analyst: I wanted to ask around -- you guys have been pretty clear, I think, that second, third quarter 2027 is whenever we could see potentially a little bit of margin inflection due to your supply chain. So I think maybe right now, I think you mentioned 9 to 15 months is kind of like the order placement. Whenever you get your own supply chain in place, do you expect that lead time to go down on orders potentially at all? Or do you think that's still the right way to think about it that 9 to 15 months whenever you get your own supply chain in place?
Scott Bender: No, our lead times are much lower than that. What are our lead times right now? 4 to 6 months depending upon the product.
Unknown Analyst: Okay. Perfect. No, that makes a lot of sense. That's really helpful. And then the second question I wanted to ask around is maybe could you speak more specifically maybe you touched on your prepared remarks, just what the particular -- some of the logistics disruptions you're dealing with right now as it pertains to the Middle East or potentially anything on the tariff side of things? I think you highlighted that as well, maybe the potential size of refunds that you think you could see and maybe what goes to the customer versus what you guys could potentially harvest from that?
Scott Bender: Well, I would tell you I'm not going to -- I don't want to comment on the magnitude of the potential tariff refund just because there is a lot of confusion about the applicability of non-liquidated versus liquidated tariffs, and I can let Joel go into detail about that. It's not an insignificant amount of money, but it is modest in comparison to how much we actually spend on tariffs because it does not impact the majority, which are 232 and 301. It's more related to --...
Joel Bender: It's really just -- they refer to them as these emergency, but it's really what you think of as reciprocal tariffs and fit all. That's all that this address. So as Scott mentioned, the 50% steel tariff, it remains in place. And the way the process works right now is you're in Phase 1 of what they refer to as the tariff refunds and it would be on entries that have not been liquidated, which essentially means that have not been processed by CBP and then any that were liquidated in the last 80 days. You submit the list, it's a case declaration, you get a confirmation that it was accepted and then you wait for your claim number.
And they tell us you can expect something maybe in 90-plus days, but there was no confidence in that particular date because, again, this is just Phase 1. They expect that there will be at least the second, possibly third phase in which they address liquidated entries, but that has not been confirmed. So again, it's still very unclear as to what the outcome of this is going to be.
Operator: Our next question comes from Jeffrey LeBlanc from TPH.
Jeffrey LeBlanc: Ironically, it's going to be about the alternative shipping methods you're using in the Middle East. And then additionally, how quickly do you think shipping can return to normal means once the strait reopens?
Scott Bender: Right now, we're having to take a very circuitous route around the Arabian Peninsula and trying to get some stuff in by land, but it's incredibly problematic. I don't know how much -- it's probably -- I don't know. I don't want to tell you something that's not true, but it's got to be a good 30 days more longer than it had before. When is it going to return? You got a huge backlog of vessels, like almost 1,600 vessels that have to be cleared. And so I think the priority is going to be to try to get oil out of the region and of course, get food into the region.
So it's going to take months and months. I think during its peak, what do we clear 100-plus ships a day, 120 or so, and you got almost 1,600 that have to be cleared. And then on top of that, you're going to have food that's coming in. I just -- Jeff, I don't know. It's going to be a good while.
Operator: Our next call is coming from Don Crist from Johnson Rice.
Donald Crist: I wanted to ask a more macro question because I know you like to pontificate on such things. But just in your conversations with your customers, we're hearing more and more dislocation between the financial oil markets and paper oil markets and the back end of the strip coming up. Is that what you're hearing from your larger customers out there and as that relates to activity in '27?
Scott Bender: Well, I mean, obviously, they're looking at the forward market much more than the spot market, although their balance sheets right now are blowing up with spot market sales. But you know that in terms of drilling, they're looking at the market next year. And I think the best way to characterize this is that whatever they were assuming, they're now assuming probably in the neighborhood of at least $15 higher in the futures market. They're always very reluctant to share that with us for fear that we're going to see that as an opportunity to raise prices, frankly.
So they always -- they -- they're not seeing poverty as they were before, but they're not highlighting how much cash they're building on their balance sheets. So they're unlikely to share that. But look, I can tell you from talking to maybe 6 or 7 or 8 already, they're feeling a heck of a lot better about '27 than they were prior to this conflict. How that translates, I think it really depends upon people like you. If you're not supportive of these increases, then they won't proceed. It really takes one of the big ones to open up, and I think the rest will follow.
There's no question in my mind, they all look to drill more wells right now.
Donald Crist: I tend to agree with you. And just one on Vietnam. It sounds like you got tentative approval of API. Any parameters around how much that could improve margins once you ship fully out of China and come into the U.S. or shift more out of China come into the U.S. and more from Vietnam?
Scott Bender: Well, we're hoping that Vietnam by the end of the year will be what, about 40% -- we haven't really -- all we know is it 40% of it is going to be at a tariff rate that goes from 75% down to 50%. But to tell you that we've quantified that. I don't think we've actually quantified it because what difference is going to make, we're going to do it, and it's going to benefit us. But before the next call, Alan, can we quantify that?
Alan Boyd: Yes. Yes, we'll quantify that for you.
Operator: This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Scott Bender, CEO, for closing remarks.
Scott Bender: I want to thank everybody for their continued support and interest in the company. I think we have a very exciting remainder of the year. And although I didn't receive any questions, I'm particularly excited about our Spoolable product. I think that we've just -- we've had a transformation in that particular area. So anyway, I hope to report more on that next quarter. Everybody, have a good day.
Operator: Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.
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